On June 11, 2026, just 48 hours after SpaceX debuted on Nasdaq with a historic 19% first-day surge, a brief statement from Nasdaq Chair Adena Friedman sent shockwaves through Wall Street: "We are in discussions with at least three 'unicorns' valued above $100 billion about IPO plans within the next 18 months. Two of them are from the artificial intelligence sector. One is from Elon Musk's ecosystem."
You don't need to be a financial analyst to guess those three names: xAI (Musk's AI company), OpenAI (the creator of ChatGPT), and Anthropic (the heavyweight rival backed by Amazon and Google).
SpaceX's resounding success has blown the doors wide open – not just for space companies – but for an entire generation of private tech "mega-dinosaurs" that have been avoiding public markets for years. The question is no longer "will they IPO?" but rather "when, and will retail investors get a real opportunity or just become prey for institutional funds?"
Context: Why Haven't These Tech "Mega-Dinosaurs" Gone Public?
Before 2026, there were three main reasons why AI companies valued above $50 billion hadn't listed:
First: Unprecedented Private Capital Abundance
Between 2023 and 2025, venture capital funds and sovereign wealth funds (particularly from the Middle East) pumped over $200 billion into the AI sector. OpenAI raised $10 billion from Microsoft, Anthropic received $7 billion from Amazon and Google, and xAI successfully raised $12 billion from Qatar Investment Authority and Sequoia. When private capital flows freely, there's no pressure to IPO.
Second: The "Snowflake Scenario" Nightmare
Snowflake – the cloud software company – IPO'd in 2020 at a $33 billion valuation and immediately doubled on its first day, but then lost 60% of its value within 18 months. AI companies feared becoming "post-IPO bubbles" when public markets might lack patience with their cash burn rates.
Third: Regulatory Barriers
The SEC tightened IPO regulations for AI companies following a 2024 case where a healthcare AI company was caught inflating revenue. Extended review processes and high compliance costs followed.
But SpaceX's IPO changed everything. When a company losing $4 billion in its most recent quarter was still warmly received by the market, the "when to IPO" equation for AI companies got a new answer: "Right now, or never."
xAI – Elon Musk's "New Favorite Child"
Among the three names, xAI is the youngest but is expected to IPO first – possibly as early as Q4 2026 or Q1 2027.
Who Is xAI?
Founded in July 2023, just 3 years ago, xAI is Elon Musk's AI company, built as a "reaction" to OpenAI, which Musk claimed had strayed from its original nonprofit mission.
xAI's flagship product is Grok-3 – a third-generation large language model integrated directly into the X platform (formerly Twitter). The key differentiator: Grok-3 is trained on real-time data from X, allowing it to update news faster than any competitor.
Current Valuation
xAI's most recent funding round took place in March 2026, led by Qatar Investment Authority, with participation from Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz. Post-round valuation: $75 billion.
Elon Musk owns approximately 60% of xAI shares (largely through asset conversion from X). The remaining 40% belongs to investors and employees.
IPO Plans
Bloomberg sources revealed on June 12: xAI filed a confidential IPO filing with the SEC on June 5 – just 4 days before SpaceX went public. Expected timeline: mid-2027, but could be accelerated to Q1 2027 if market conditions are favorable.
Expected underwriters are Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley – the same two banks that handled SpaceX's IPO.
Risks and Opportunities
Opportunity: If successful, xAI would be the largest AI IPO in history. ARK Invest analysts predict xAI could reach a $200 billion valuation on day one – higher than SpaceX on a P/S basis because AI typically commands higher multiples than space.
Risk: xAI is still bleeding money. Grok-3 training costs are estimated at $500 million, while Q1 2026 revenue was only $280 million. Cash burn rate is $1.2 billion per year.
Musk's perspective: In an X Spaces interview on June 12, Musk said: "xAI doesn't need to IPO right now. But investors want liquidity. And I also want the public to have a chance to own a piece of the AI ecosystem I'm building."
OpenAI – Sam Altman's "Hesitant Heart"
Unlike xAI, OpenAI is the biggest name and also the most complex in the IPO story.
The Peculiar Ownership Structure
OpenAI was founded in 2015 as a nonprofit organization. In 2019, they created a "capped-profit" subsidiary to raise capital from Microsoft and other investors, with the condition that investor returns are capped at 100 times their initial investment – a structure unprecedented in history.
This creates a paradox: OpenAI can IPO, but public investors would be buying into a company where potential profits are "strangled" by the 100x cap. Once that cap is reached, all surplus profits go to the nonprofit – meaning "they don't belong to shareholders."
Shareholder Pressure
Microsoft, Thrive Capital, and Sequoia – OpenAI's three largest investors – have invested a combined $13 billion from 2019 to 2025. They want an "exit" – and IPO is the clearest path.
According to The Information on June 10, OpenAI's board held a closed-door meeting on June 8 to discuss "strategic options, including IPO." Result: No final decision, but the timeline could be late 2027 or early 2028.
What Valuation?
OpenAI is currently valued at $200 billion in its most recent private funding rounds (February 2026). If it IPOs, investment banks predict a valuation of $350-400 billion – on par with Meta after its 2022 recovery.
But there will be a significant discount due to the "capped-profit" structure. Bernstein analysts estimate this discount could be as much as 30-40% compared to similarly-sized AI companies.
The Sam Altman Question
CEO Sam Altman – compared to "the Steve Jobs of the AI generation" – is a major plus. But also a risk. Altman was famously fired by his board (and later reinstated) in November 2023.
Altman responded in a May 2026 Wall Street Journal interview: "I'm not afraid of an IPO. I'm afraid of doing an IPO too early, when the company isn't ready for the pressure of quarterly financial reporting. AI is still in its early stages of development. I don't want to be handcuffed by 90-day numbers."
Anthropic – The "Silent Ambitious One"
Unlike the noise surrounding xAI and OpenAI, Anthropic moves quietly but surely.
Who Is Anthropic?
Founded in 2021 by former OpenAI leaders (including Dario Amodei), Anthropic is seen as the "more ethical version" of OpenAI. Their flagship product is Claude-4, an AI model trained on "ethical AI" principles – less controversial than ChatGPT, safer for enterprises.
Massive Backing
- Amazon invested $8 billion in Anthropic from 2023 to 2025. In return, Anthropic must use Amazon's Trainium AI chips and serve as the primary AI provider for AWS.
- Google invested $2 billion, integrating Claude-4 into Google Workspace (Gmail, Docs, Sheets) – competing directly with Microsoft Copilot.
Total funding raised: $10 billion. Current valuation: $60 billion (after April 2026 funding round).
A Different IPO Strategy: SPAC
While xAI and OpenAI chose the traditional IPO route, Anthropic is taking a different path: SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company).
According to Reuters on June 11, Anthropic is in discussions with a SPAC called Mercury Capital (ticker: MRCU) led by former Google CFO Patrick Pichette. Target: complete the merger by Q1 2027.
SPAC advantages: Faster than traditional IPO (3-4 months vs. 6-9 months), less bound by SEC review processes, more flexible valuation based on negotiation.
SPAC risks: SPACs lost their "trendy" status after the 2020-2021 frenzy, with many SPAC deals failing or facing lawsuits. Institutional investors may view SPACs as "less prestigious" than traditional IPOs.
Pichette said in a June 12 CNBC interview: "The 2026 SPAC market is different from 2021. Investors have filtered – only deals with strong fundamentals survive. Anthropic has those fundamentals."
30% Retail Allocation – A Revolution for Individual Investors
The most remarkable aspect of the post-SpaceX IPO story – and one that could permanently change the U.S. stock market landscape – is the retail allocation percentage.
Where Does the 30% Come From?
After the 2021 GameStop saga, when retail investors discovered that hedge funds could short up to 140% of a company's total outstanding shares, the SEC had to act. One of the most important reforms required IPO companies to allocate a minimum of 20-30% of shares to individual investors – instead of just 5-10% as before.
SpaceX's IPO applied the 30% level – a record. And all three AI companies are confirmed by sources to follow suit.
What Does 30% Retail Allocation Mean?
For xAI (expected IPO valuation $120-150 billion), 30% means $36-45 billion worth of shares for individual investors.
For OpenAI (valuation $350-400 billion), 30% is $105-120 billion – equivalent to the GDP of a country like Hungary.
How to Buy?
Brokers like Robinhood, Fidelity, and Schwab are ready. Robinhood alone reports over 5 million accounts registered for "IPO Access" – a feature allowing retail accounts to purchase IPO shares from the initial offering.
Warning: "Allocation" doesn't mean "everyone who registers gets to buy." With demand expected to exceed supply by 10 to 20 times, each individual account may only be allocated 100-200 shares.
Nevertheless, this is an unprecedented opportunity. Historically, major IPOs like Google (2004), Facebook (2012), and Alibaba (2014) never allocated more than 10% to individuals. SpaceX raising it to 30% was already a breakthrough.
The IPO Race: Who Goes Public First?
| Company | Method | Expected Timeline | Est. Valuation | Underwriter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| xAI | Traditional IPO | Q1 2027 | $120-150B | Goldman, Morgan Stanley |
| Anthropic | SPAC (Mercury Capital) | Q1 2027 | $80-100B | N/A (SPAC) |
| OpenAI | Traditional IPO | Late 2027 – Early 2028 | $350-400B | Goldman, J.P. Morgan, MS |
Best-case scenario: All three could debut in 2027 – xAI and Anthropic in the first half, OpenAI in the second half. In that case, 2027 would become the "Year of the Great AI IPO" – when three AI companies with a combined valuation of nearly $1 trillion all go public within 12 months.
Cautious scenario: One or two companies delay to 2028 if markets become unstable (recession, geopolitical conflict, or AI bubble burst).
The Big Question: Do Retail Investors Have Enough Patience?
While institutional funds are eagerly preparing billions for the AI IPO wave, individual investors face a tough question: "Do I have enough patience to wait until 2027, or will my capital rotate to other opportunities?"
Over the past three years, the U.S. stock market has been running hot – the S&P 500 gained 42% from mid-2023 to mid-2026. Many retail investors missed the AI boom because they couldn't buy Nvidia, Microsoft, or AI ETFs early enough.
The IPO wave of xAI, OpenAI, and Anthropic could be their last chance to join the AI revolution from the front row – before these companies' stock prices climb to levels "no one can afford."
But it could also be a trap if the AI market is a bubble, and these companies drop 50-70% in their first year of listing, like Snowflake, like Rivian, like so many other "hot" IPOs in the past.
Legendary investor Peter Lynch once said: "The best investment you can make is in something you understand well."
With xAI, OpenAI, and Anthropic, the question for every investor is: Do you truly understand AI – or are you just following the crowd?
Follow the final article in the "Space Billionaire Era" series on bravetopic.xyz